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Analyzing Birth Rates

Activity Description Activity Guide Data 1970-1995Resources


The data for this activity can be found at the following website: http://lib.stat.cmu.edu/DASL/Datafiles/Birthrates.html

Reference: P.K. Whelpton and A. A. Campbell, "Fertility Tables for Birth Charts of American Women," Vital Statistics Special Reports 51, no. 1. (Washington D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1960, years 1917-1975). National Center for Health Statistics, Vital Statistics of the United States Vol. 1, Natality (Washington D.C.: Government Printing Office, yearly, 1958-1975.

Part 1: Numerical Analysis of Birthrates

  • Open the web page listed above. Select and copy the data on this page. Open Excel, select cell A1, and paste the data. Select the Text to Column option under the Data menu. Follow the directions in the dialog boxes to format the columns so that the years and birthrates are in two separate columns.  In step 2, be sure to select Tab and Space as the delimiters.

  • Let's reorganize the data so that the years are in column 1 and birthrates are in column 2. Move the birthrates data from column 1 to column 3 (Select column 1 and copy, then select column 3 and paste).  Delete column 1 (Select column 1, then under Edit, choose Delete.)

  • Interpret the meaning of the values given for the birth rates.

  • Look at the data.  Do you notice any patterns?

  • When did the highest birth rate occur?  the lowest?  (Use the =MAX(range) and =MIN(range) functions to determine these values.)  Conjecture a possible historical reason for the high and low birth rates.

  • Examine the increase or decrease in birth rates between consecutive years.  To make this task easier, we can create a formula and calculate the differences in column C.  Starting in the row with 1918, calculate the difference between the birth rate of 1918 and 1917 (Ex:  =B3-B2).  Use the Fill down feature to quickly calculate all the consecutive differences through 1975. Interpret the positive and negative values.

  • Column C now contains the absolute differences between consecutive years.  In column D, create a formula to calculate the percent increase or decrease in birth rate between consecutive years.  What should you use as the numerator and denominator to calculate the relative differences?  Be sure to display the values in column D as a percent. Use the Fill down feature to quickly calculate all the percent differences through 1975.

To display a value as a percent:
  • Click on the cell containing the value you wish to display as a percent.
  • Click on the key on the toolbar. The decimal place of the current value should move two places to the right and the percent symbol should be displayed.
  • Compare the values in column C and D.  Which values are more meaningful for describing the increases and decreases in birth rates?  Why?

  • Between which two consecutive years did the largest increase in birth rates occur?  When was the largest decrease in birth rates?  What historical or social events could account for these large differences?

Part 2: A Graphical View of the Birth Rates

  • In order to examine the data graphically, and keep the workbook organized, we are going to copy the data in columns A and B (years and birth rates) and paste the data onto sheet 2 of the workbook.

To copy an entire column of data onto another worksheet:
  • Click on the gray column heading you wish to copy.
  • Click on the copy button on the tool bar.
  • Select the desired tab on the lower scroll bar to move to another sheet in the workbook.
  • Once on the new sheet, click on the column heading where you plan to paste the data.
  • Click on the paste button on the tool bar.
  • (You can copy and paste more than one column at a time.)

SHORTCUT: To copy an entire worksheet, under the Edit menu, choose Move or Copy Sheet.  Select the Create a Copy option and indicate where you want the new sheet located.

  • To further organize the worksheet, you could rename sheet 1 “Data Table” and sheet 2 as “Data Graph.”

To rename a worksheet:
  • Double-Click on the tab containing the current name of the worksheet.

  • Type the new name for that sheet.

  • The new name should now appear on the tab on the lower scroll bar.

  • To visually analyze the trends in birth rates, it will help to make a connected XY scatterplot of the birth rates against years. (Be sure to choose the option of connecting the data points.)

  • Change the scale on the graph so the years range from 1915 to 1980 in increments of 5 years.  Change the scale on the y-axis (birth rate) so the changes in the birth rates look as dramatic as possible.

To change the scale on a graph’s axis:
  • Double click on the graph to select it for editing (it will have a gray outline).
  • Double click on the axis you wish to change. The Format Axis dialog box will appear.
  • Click on the Scale tab and type in the desired values for the Minimum, Maximum, and Major Unit and click OK.
  • Historically analyze the trends in birth rate.

    • Can you describe any historical events or social implications that might be correlated with rises or drops in the birth rate?

    • When were the “baby boom” years?

    • What factors could have contributed to the decrease in birth rates in the 1960’s?

In your analysis, recall that the birth rates are per 10,000 twenty-three year old women.

  • Can you find any local areas on the graph with a constant (or almost constant) positive slope? negative slope? Use two data points to calculate these local slopes. Interpret the meaning of the slope in the context of birth rates. How do the calculated slope values compare with the absolute difference values for the same years on the "Data Table" worksheet?

Part 3: Recent Trends in Birth Rates

  • What do you predict the trend line will look like from 1975 until present?  Make historical, social, and mathematical arguments to support your prediction.

  • While still on the “Data Graph” sheet, in column C, starting at the row with the 1970 data, enter the 20-24 year old data (attached) from 1970 through 1995.  Be sure to extend the year column down through 1995. (Hint: Use the Fill Series option to extend the years.)

To create a series using Fill:
  • Select the cell containing the first value of the series
  • Under the Edit menu, choose Fill, then Series…
  • In the pop-up window, select whether the series will be placed in a row or column. Also choose the type of series (in this case choose linear).
  • Enter the step value (how the series will change from cell to cell) and the Stop value (the last entry in the series).  Click OK.
  • Notice that the data reported from 1970-1995 represents women in the age range 20-24.  Compare the 1970-1975 data for 23-year-old women with that of women ages 20-24.  Are the numbers similar?  Do the birth rates follow the same trend?

  • Add the new data to the existing scatterplot.  Be sure to adjust the range for the years (X axis) to include the years through 1995.

To add data to an existing graph:
  • Double click on the graph for editing.
  • Under the Chart menu, select New Data...
  • Select the cells containing the data you wish to add. (Be sure to select the years and the birth rate values.)
  • Click on OK. In the Paste Special dialog box, make sure that New Series and Column are selected. Select the box next to the statement Categories (X values) in First Column. Click OK to add the new series of data. (The data series should appear in a different color with different markings as data points.)
  • How did your prediction compare to the actual birth rates?  Are there any historical or social reasons why the birth rate seems to have stabilized?  What do you predict will be the future trend in birth rates for the age range 20-24?

  • Does a declining birth rate mean that fewer babies are born?  Discuss the difference between birth rates and the actual number of live births reported in a given year.

  • Do you think the birth rates for other age ranges (e.g., 30-34 year olds) would follow similar trend lines?  Discuss historical and social reasons for your conjecture.

Extensions:

  • Compare and contrast the trends for different age groups of women and/or ethnic groups.  Visit the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) website to search for information and/or data for the populations of interest (http://www.cdc.gov/nchswww).

  • Further discuss the difference between birth rates and the actual number of live births reported in a given year.  This information and data is also available at the NCHS website.  Compare a graph of birth rates and actual number of live births over an extended period of time.  What are the similarities and differences?




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Last modified on July 27, 2001.