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I. Probability Topic(s): sample space, independent events ,  Law of Large Numbers, deviation percentage 

A. NCTM Standards

B. Related Connections : biology

II. Assumed prior experience: reading charts and graphs, ratios and percentages

III. Rationale:

This lesson is designed to help students rectify two misconceptions they may have.  Many students have the false notion that if an event has recently occurred frequently  then it is "bound to happen again."  Or, they may believe that because there has been such a high occurrence of this event, "we are due for a change."

IV. Learning Objectives:

• Students will be able to communicate to one another as they explore concepts of probability through the use of a computer program: The Hospital.

• Students will be able to explore an interactive example of the concept of independent events.

• Students will be able to make a connection from mathematics to science and real life.

• Students will be able to develop a formula for deviation percentage.

V. Materials & Technology Needed:

Computer lab of one computer per two students computers, Microsoft Excel (you will need to activate the add on :  Analysis Toolpack), copies of the provided question sheet. You will use the provided Hospital spreadsheet program

VI. Procedure:

     CLASSROOM (10-15 MIN)

• Students will be exploring probability via the Hospital program. 

• Students will not be required to be silent but expect them to be talking only about the program

• Time may be limited, but if possible allow for about 30 minutes in the lab

• The worksheet of questions is to be provided to students in the classroom prior to leaving for the lab.

• Explain that they may not get all of the answers, but talk to each other and explore as much as you can for the next 25 minutes.

• Remember that we will be discussing the answers back in class.

• Divide  the class into working groups.

    COMPUTER LAB (30 MIN)

• Directions for using Hospital:  HIT F9 AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS!  Each time F9 is pressed, babies are born at a particular hospital or area at a rate of 10, 100 or 1000 per week. 

• Give the students 5 minutes to explore on their own.

• Use the remaining time wisely and explore all three sheets of questions and charts

• Take turns Pressing F9 and being the note taker.

    CLASSROOM II (25 MIN)

• Post the concepts listed in (I.) on the board.  

• Begin by asking if anybody would like to propose their own explanation of a concept.  Have them give examples relevant to the Hospital.  Encourage them to use their own language.

• Continue through the list until it is complete.

VII. Assessment:

• HOMEWORK complete the responses to chart.

• Create a chosen PROBABILITY situation  and write a paragraph about it including explanations with regard to is RESULTS, SAMPLE SPACE, RELIABILITY, DEVIATION PERCENTAGE, POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE RECENCY and FAIRNESS.  THE NEWS, MAGAZINES AND NEWSPAPERS ARE WONDERFUL RESOURCES.