III. Rationale

• Students will use data from simulations to make theoretical generalizations.
• Students will discuss possible relationships between several given events.
• Students will gain understanding about the effect of the sample size on experiments and simulations.   

IV.  Learning Objectives:

• Students will discuss and gain experience with independent events, sample spaces, equally likely probabilities, percentages, variability, and sample size within the context of this simulation.
• Students will prove to themselves that within a large sample, small samples of "deceptive" data may exist.
• Students will discover that there is more variability in small samples.

V.  Materials & Technology Needed: 

Computer lab set up such that:

1. Each computer has Microsoft Excel.

2. Each computer has access to the "True or False?" excel file from the "What are the Odds?" website. We have provided tips for you on using spreadsheet simulations.

Preferably a computer monitor large enough for the entire class to see the "True or False?" excel file.  

"True or False?" and "Guess what?" handouts for each student.

VI.  Procedure:

1. Pass out a "True or False?" handout to each student.

2. Begin by opening up the "True or False?" excel file on the classroom monitor.  Explain the scenario detailed at the beginning of the handout in detail.  Demonstrate what happens when you press F9.  Demonstrate how to drag the next ten "answers" in the simulation into view.

3. Have each student open up the "True or False?" excel file at their own computer.

4. Let them begin to work through the handout, comparing as often as necessary with each other.

5. Circulate continuously, paying close attention to answers on the worksheet so that misconceptions can be identified early on.

6. Once everyone has worked through the handout, display the first spreadsheet in the excel file on the classroom monitor. Have students generalize aloud what they have learned about the effect of sample space.  Use the computer to demonstrate their generalizations for everyone else.  Make sure to show a case where the "answers" to the first 10 questions are very skewed, but for the overall total of all 100 questions, the balance of "true' questions and "false" questions is very close to 50-50%.

7. Display the second spreadsheet, "Guess What?" on the classroom monitor.  Follow the same approach as described in step 6.  Lead students to the conclusion that there is more variability in small samples.  

VII.  Assessment: